An Introduction to Decision Theory

An Introduction to Decision Theory

A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.

Author: Martin Peterson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781107151598

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 348

View: 114

Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.
Categories: Business & Economics

Comparative Decision Making

Comparative Decision Making

Game theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Gilboa, I. (2009). Theory of decision under uncertainty. ... Game theory evolving: A problem-centered introduction to modeling strategic interaction. ... Cambridge introductions to philosophy.

Author: Philip H. Crowley

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780199856817

Category: Psychology

Page: 448

View: 386

Decision making cuts across most areas of intellectual enquiry and academic endeavor. The classical view of individual human thinkers choosing among options remains important and instructive, but the contributors to this volume broaden this perspective to characterize the decision making behavior of groups, non-human organisms and even non-living objects and mathematical constructs. A diverse array of methods is brought to bear-mathematical, computational, subjective, neurobiological, evolutionary, and cultural. We can often identify best or optimal decisions and decision making processes, but observed responses may deviate markedly from these, to a large extent because the environment in which decisions must be made is constantly changing. Moreover, decision making can be highly constrained by institutions, natural and social context, and capabilities. Studies of the mechanisms underlying decisions by humans and other organisms are just beginning to gain traction and shape our thinking. Though decision making has fundamental similarities across the diverse array of entities considered to be making them, there are large differences of degree (if not kind) that relate to the question of human uniqueness. From this survey of views and approaches, we converge on a tentative agenda for accelerating development of a new field that includes advancing the dialog between the sciences and the humanities, developing a defensible classification scheme for decision making and decision makers, addressing the role of morality and justice, and moving advances into applications-the rapidly developing field of decision support.
Categories: Psychology

Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 2

Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 2

An Introduction to Decision Theory . Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Pettigrew , Richard ( 2013a ) . A New Epistemic Utility Argument for the Principal Principle . Episteme 10 , pp .

Author: Michael G. Titelbaum

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780192677853

Category: Philosophy

Page: 400

View: 821

Bayesian ideas have recently been applied across such diverse fields as philosophy, statistics, economics, psychology, artificial intelligence, and legal theory. Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology examines epistemologists' use of Bayesian probability mathematics to represent degrees of belief. Michael G. Titelbaum provides an accessible introduction to the key concepts and principles of the Bayesian formalism, enabling the reader both to follow epistemological debates and to see broader implications Volume 1 begins by motivating the use of degrees of belief in epistemology. It then introduces, explains, and applies the five core Bayesian normative rules: Kolmogorov's three probability axioms, the Ratio Formula for conditional degrees of belief, and Conditionalization for updating attitudes over time. Finally, it discusses further normative rules (such as the Principal Principle, or indifference principles) that have been proposed to supplement or replace the core five. Volume 2 gives arguments for the five core rules introduced in Volume 1, then considers challenges to Bayesian epistemology. It begins by detailing Bayesianism's successful applications to confirmation and decision theory. Then it describes three types of arguments for Bayesian rules, based on representation theorems, Dutch Books, and accuracy measures. Finally, it takes on objections to the Bayesian approach and alternative formalisms, including the statistical approaches of frequentism and likelihoodism.
Categories: Philosophy

The Irrational Jesus

The Irrational Jesus

An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. Kindle edition. Pfeffer, Jeffrey, and Robert I. Sutton. Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense: ...

Author: Ken Evers-Hood

Publisher: Wipf and Stock Publishers

ISBN: 9781498220491

Category: Religion

Page: 288

View: 996

Behavioral science books are popping up on bestseller lists: Predictably Irrational; Thinking, Fast and Slow; Nudge; Decisive. Even the White House launched a Behavioral Insights Team to match the British Ministry of Nudges. Conspicuously absent from this conversation is the church. The Irrational Jesus bridges this gap. Ken Evers-Hood looks at Jesus through the lens of cognitive heuristics (mental shortcuts) and biases (blind spots) and makes the case that a fully human Jesus is predictably irrational--just like all of us. Find out how the Apostle Paul's community building mirrors a prisoner's dilemma game and how this makes Paul an irrational leader, too. Discover how playing better games in church can foster hopeful, flourishing communities. Improve your decision-making; learn when to plan for irrationality and when to live into it. The Irrational Jesus addresses these issues and more. Integrating the insights of behavioral economists such as Dan Ariely, the gameful thinking of Jane McGonigal, and cutting-edge ideas from decision theory, Evers-Hood articulates a behavioral theology for fully human pastors of fully human congregations--a fresh perspective that will change how pastors and other church leaders see themselves, the institutions they serve, and the scriptural and theological tradition.
Categories: Religion

Climate Justice and Feasibility

Climate Justice and Feasibility

An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Rawls, John. 1999. The Law of Peoples: With, The Idea of Public Reason Revisited. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Author: Sarah Kenehan

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

ISBN: 9781538154205

Category: Climatic changes

Page: 260

View: 924

This volume will address whether and to what extent those working to better understand or achieve climate justice should think about the real-world feasibility of their theories or proposals.
Categories: Climatic changes

Transformations of the Supernatural

Transformations of the Supernatural

An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. Phipps, William E. Supernaturalism in Christianity: Its Growth and Cure. Macon: Mercer University Press, 2008.

Author: Petra Schoenenberger

Publisher: transcript Verlag

ISBN: 9783839437759

Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Page: 204

View: 761

Daniel Defoe's work displays a keen interest in stories of supernatural encounters. Once considering how one might prove supernatural occurrences and whether one can trust eyewitness accounts, Defoe demonstrates that more is at stake. Like his contemporaries, Defoe wonders about the range of scientific insight, and about the moral and epistemological ramifications of unchallenged trust and faith. His transformations of the supernatural probe the boundaries of knowledge and evidence and play with the limits of cognition, emphasizing the inseparability of mind and emotion.
Categories: Language Arts & Disciplines

Fusion of Smart Multimedia and Computer Gaming Technologies

Fusion of Smart  Multimedia and Computer Gaming Technologies

Peterson M (2009) An introduction to decision theory (Cambridge introductions to philosophy), 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 6. Michael DR, SL Chen (2005) Serious games: games that educate, train, and inform.

Author: Dharmendra Sharma

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783319146454

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 205

View: 206

This monograph book is focused on the recent advances in smart, multimedia and computer gaming technologies. The Contributions include: ·Smart Gamification and Smart Serious Games. ·Fusion of secure IPsec-based Virtual Private Network, mobile computing and rich multimedia technology. ·Teaching and Promoting Smart Internet of Things Solutions Using the Serious-game Approach. ·Evaluation of Student Knowledge using an e-Learning Framework. ·The iTEC Eduteka. ·3D Virtual Worlds as a Fusion of Immersing, Visualizing, Recording, and Replaying Technologies. ·Fusion of multimedia and mobile technology in audio guides for Museums and Exhibitions: from Bluetooth Push to Web Pull. The book is directed to researchers, students and software developers working in the areas of education and information technologies.
Categories: Technology & Engineering

Large Group Decision Making

Large Group Decision Making

Creating Decision Support Approaches at Scale Iván Palomares Carrascosa. 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. ... Peterson, M.: An Introduction to Decision Theory (Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy). Cambridge University Press, 2011.

Author: Iván Palomares Carrascosa

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783030010270

Category: Computers

Page: 118

View: 531

This SpringerBrief provides a pioneering, central point of reference for the interested reader in Large Group Decision Making trends such as consensus support, fusion and weighting of relevant decision information, subgroup clustering, behavior management, and implementation of decision support systems, among others. Based on the challenges and difficulties found in classical approaches to handle large decision groups, the principles, families of techniques, and newly related disciplines to Large-Group Decision Making (such as Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Social Network Analysis, Opinion Dynamics, Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences), are discussed. Real-world applications and future directions of research on this novel topic are likewise highlighted.
Categories: Computers

Leadership for the Future

Leadership for the Future

25 “A Leader's Framework for Decision Making”, hbr.org, accessed July 26, 2020, https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making.26 Kent W Staley, Cambridge Introductions to PhilosophyAn Introduction to the Philosophy ...

Author: Thomas Mengel

Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing

ISBN: 9781527571617

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 390

View: 489

This volume explores various approaches to leadership from both the past and the present, critically analysing these in the light of possible future challenges and scenarios. In addition, by drawing from the field of future studies, it introduces the reader to concepts of leadership that are ‘future-ready’.
Categories: Business & Economics

The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information

The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information

For an overview, see the introductory chapter to The Prisoner's Dilemma (ed. M. Peterson, CUP 2015). The discussion in this section is based on this chapter. References Egan, A. (2007) “Some Counterexamples to Causal Decision Theory,” ...

Author: Luciano Floridi

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317633495

Category: Philosophy

Page: 446

View: 714

Information and communication technology occupies a central place in the modern world, with society becoming increasingly dependent on it every day. It is therefore unsurprising that it has become a growing subject area in contemporary philosophy, which relies heavily on informational concepts. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is an outstanding reference source to the key topics and debates in this exciting subject and is the first collection of its kind. Comprising over thirty chapters by a team of international contributors the Handbook is divided into four parts: basic ideas quantitative and formal aspects natural and physical aspects human and semantic aspects. Within these sections central issues are examined, including probability, the logic of information, informational metaphysics, the philosophy of data and evidence, and the epistemic value of information. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is essential reading for students and researchers in philosophy, computer science and communication studies.
Categories: Philosophy