Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline.

Author: Vladik Kreinovich

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3030041999

Category: Computers

Page: 1157

View: 978

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.
Categories: Computers

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Econometrics Hung T. Nguyen1,2(B), Nguyen Duc Trung3, and Nguyen Ngoc Thach3 1 Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, ...

Author: Vladik Kreinovich

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783030042004

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 1157

View: 665

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.
Categories: Technology & Engineering

Data Science for Financial Econometrics

Data Science for Financial Econometrics

Beyond traditional probabilistic methods in econometrics. In: V. Kreinovich, N. Thach, N. Trung, & D. Van Thanh (Eds.) Beyond traditional probabilistic methods in economics. ECONVN 2019. Studies in computational intelligence (Vol. 809).

Author: Nguyen Ngoc Thach

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030488536

Category: Computers

Page: 633

View: 683

This book offers an overview of state-of-the-art econometric techniques, with a special emphasis on financial econometrics. There is a major need for such techniques, since the traditional way of designing mathematical models – based on researchers’ insights – can no longer keep pace with the ever-increasing data flow. To catch up, many application areas have begun relying on data science, i.e., on techniques for extracting models from data, such as data mining, machine learning, and innovative statistics. In terms of capitalizing on data science, many application areas are way ahead of economics. To close this gap, the book provides examples of how data science techniques can be used in economics. Corresponding techniques range from almost traditional statistics to promising novel ideas such as quantum econometrics. Given its scope, the book will appeal to students and researchers interested in state-of-the-art developments, and to practitioners interested in using data science techniques.
Categories: Computers

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

Chapman and Hall/ CRC Press, Boca Raton (2019) 18. Nguyen, H.T., Trung, N.D., Thach, N.N.: Beyond traditional probabilistic methods in economics. In: Kreinovich, V., et al. (eds.) Beyond Traditional Probabilistics Methods in ...

Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030497286

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 451

View: 255

This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.
Categories: Technology & Engineering

Algebraic Techniques and Their Use in Describing and Processing Uncertainty

Algebraic Techniques and Their Use in Describing and Processing Uncertainty

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, pp. 168–175. Springer, Cham, Switzerland (2019) Direct Decompositions of Matrices Adolf Mader and Otto Mutzbauer In Why Bohmian Approach to Quantum Econometrics: An Algebraic .

Author: Hung T. Nguyen

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030385651

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 170

View: 811

This book discusses heuristic methods – methods lacking a solid theoretical justification – which are ubiquitous in numerous application areas, and explains techniques that can make heuristic methods more reliable. Focusing on algebraic techniques, i.e., those that use only a few specific features of a situation, it describes various state-of-the-art applications, ranging from fuzzy methods for dealing with imprecision to general optimization methods and quantum-based methods for analyzing economic phenomena. The book also includes recent results from leading researchers, which could (and hopefully will) provide the basis for future applications. As such, it is a valuable resource for mathematicians interested in potential applications of their algebraic results and ideas, as well as for application specialists wanting to discover how algebraic techniques can help in their domains.
Categories: Technology & Engineering

Statistical and Fuzzy Approaches to Data Processing with Applications to Econometrics and Other Areas

Statistical and Fuzzy Approaches to Data Processing  with Applications to Econometrics and Other Areas

Beyond traditional probabilistic methods in econometrics, inBeyond Traditional Probabilistic Models in Economics, ed. by V. Kreinovich, et al. Studies in Computational Intelligence 809 (Springer, Cham, 2019) 18.

Author: Vladik Kreinovich

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030456191

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 265

View: 416

Mainly focusing on processing uncertainty, this book presents state-of-the-art techniques and demonstrates their use in applications to econometrics and other areas. Processing uncertainty is essential, considering that computers – which help us understand real-life processes and make better decisions based on that understanding – get their information from measurements or from expert estimates, neither of which is ever 100% accurate. Measurement uncertainty is usually described using probabilistic techniques, while uncertainty in expert estimates is often described using fuzzy techniques. Therefore, it is important to master both techniques for processing data. This book is highly recommended for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges in uncertainty, as well as practitioners who want to learn how to use the corresponding state-of-the-art techniques.
Categories: Technology & Engineering

Fuzzy Information Processing 2020

Fuzzy Information Processing 2020

T.A. Tuan, V. Kreinovich, T.N. Nguyen, Decision making under interval uncertainty: beyond hurwicz pessimism-optimism criterion, in Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics. IEEE (2019), pp. 176–184 22.

Author: Barnabás Bede

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030815615

Category:

Page:

View: 256

Categories:

Information Physics

Information Physics

[50] T. Starek, M. Svítek, Estimation of socio-economic impacts using a combination of fuzzy-linguistic ... (Eds.), Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, ECONVN 2019, Studies in Computational Intelligence, Series vol.

Author: Miroslav Svitek

Publisher: Academic Press

ISBN: 9780323910125

Category: Science

Page: 154

View: 459

Information Physics: Physics-Information and Quantum Analogies for Complex Modeling presents a new theory of complex systems that uses analogy across various aspects of physics, including electronics, magnetic circuits and quantum mechanics. The book explains the quantum approach to system theory that can be understood as an extension of classical system models. The main idea is that in many complex systems there are incomplete pieces of overlapping information that must be strung together to find the most consistent model. This incomplete information can be understood as a set of non-exclusive observer results. Because they are non-exclusive, each observer registers different pictures of reality. Provides readers with an understanding of the analogies between very sophisticated theories of electrical circuits and currently underdeveloped information circuits, including capturing positive and negative links, as well as serial and parallel ordering of information blocks Integrates coverage of quantum models of complex systems using wave probabilistic functions which extend the classical probability description by phase parameters that allow researchers to model such properties as entanglement, superposition and others Provides readers with illustrative examples of how to use the presented theories of complex systems in specific cases such as hierarchical systems, cooperation of a team of experts, the lifecycle of the company, and the link between short and long-term memory
Categories: Science

Whatever Works

Whatever Works

A Case Study of Non-financial Corporations in Vietnam,” Beyond traditional probabilistic methods in economics. ECONVN Studies in computational intelligence (2019): 497–509, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-04200-4_36.

Author: Thalma Lobel

Publisher: BenBella Books

ISBN: 9781950665266

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 497

An internationally renowned psychologist shows us how overlooked factors in our work days-our physical environments, our unconscious habits, and even traits like our faces and voices-have the power to make or break our careers. In Whatever Works: The Small Cues That Make a Surprising Difference in our Success at Work—and How to Create a Happier Office, Thalma Lobel, one of the world's leading experts on human behavior, explores groundbreaking psychological research on job performance, satisfaction, and creativity. Lobel goes beyond obvious considerations like salary, title, and company culture to shed light on the hidden factors-often unrecognized, counterintuitive, or invisible-that have profound effects on how well we can do our jobs and how happy we are at work. Did you know that just doodling in a certain way can increase your creativity? That looking at something green for forty seconds will improve your attention? That crossing your legs similarly to an interviewer could get you the job? That the mere presence of a smartphone on your desk can lessen your performance, even if it's turned off? That being in a warmer room makes you more likely to want to conform with the group, affecting your decision-making? These are the invisible factors that nudge our behavior on a daily basis, and combined, have a real and significant bearing on our success-or failure-at work. In today's competitive market, where even tiny differences can be decisive, for both employees and organizations, exploiting such factors can make all the difference. The more you know about the subtle elements that can help or hinder you on the job, the better equipped you can be to take control and navigate today's competitive work world. Helpful for anyone from individual employees to managers to leaders of large organizations, Whatever Works shares valuable insights and practical takeaways to transform your professional life.
Categories: Business & Economics