Plight of the Fortune Tellers

Plight of the Fortune Tellers

In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication.

Author: Riccardo Rebonato

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9781400836390

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 328

View: 507

Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about risk management. He offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution: managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication. He argues that risk managers are still stuck in a probabilistic rut, and need to engage with the structural causes of real events.
Categories: Business & Economics

From Poverty to Prosperity

From Poverty to Prosperity

54 Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton University Press, 2007, pp. 8–9. 55 Michael Bordo, “ e Same Old Story,” remarks at the Chicago Federal Reserve Conference, ...

Author: Arnold S. Kling

Publisher: Encounter Books

ISBN: 9781594032509

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 317

View: 247

Conventional economists lean on the comfortable precision of mathematical abstraction and ignore the messy complexity of the real world. This work tells a big-picture story about the differences in the standard of living across time and across borders.
Categories: Business & Economics

Regulating From the Inside

Regulating  From  the Inside

206 Hubbard, The Failure of Risk Management (n 202) chs 8 and 9. 207 Edwards, 'An Unfortunate “Tail”' (n 80). 208 Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently ...

Author: Iris H-Y Chiu

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

ISBN: 9781509901395

Category: Law

Page: 240

View: 126

This book examines a key aspect of the post-financial crisis reform package in the EU and UK-the ratcheting up of internal control in banks and financial institutions. The legal framework for internal controls is an important part of prudential regulation, and internal control also constitutes a form of internal gate-keeping for financial firms so that compliance with laws and regulations can be secured. This book argues that the legal framework for internal control, which is a form of meta-regulation, is susceptible to weaknesses, and such weaknesses are critically examined by adopting an interdisciplinary approach. The book discusses whether post-crisis reforms adequately address the weaknesses in regulating internal control and proposes an alternative strategy to enhance the 'governance' effectiveness of internal control.
Categories: Law

Invisible Wealth

Invisible Wealth

coml2007ZO9Z3OZbusinessZ30view.html? ex=1348804800&en=7eede1d75958b918&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss. i Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton University Press ...

Author: Arnold Kling

Publisher: Encounter Books

ISBN: 9781594035425

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 336

View: 457

The discipline of economics is not what it used to be. Over the last few decades, economists have begun a revolutionary reorientation in how we look at the world, and this has major implications for politics, policy, and our everyday lives. For years, conventional economists told us an incomplete story that leaned on the comfortable precision of mathematical abstraction and ignored the complexity of the real world with all of its uncertainties, unknowns, and ongoing evolution. What economists left out of the story were the positive forces of creativity, innovation, and advancing technology that propel economies forward. Economists did not describe the dynamic process that leads to new pharmaceuticals, cell phones, Web-based information services—forces that fundamentally alter how we live our daily lives. Economists also left out the negative forces that can hold economies back: bad governance, counterproductive social practices, and patterns of taking wealth instead of creating it. They took for granted secure property rights, honest public servants, and the willingness of individuals to experiment and adapt to novelty. From Poverty to Prosperity is not Tipping Point or Freakonomics. Those books offer a smorgasbord of fascinating findings in economics and sociology, but the findings are only loosely related. From Poverty to Prosperity on the other hand, tells a big picture story about the huge differences in the standard of living across time and across borders. It is a story that draws on research from the world’s most important economists and eschews the conventional wisdom for a new, more inclusive, vision of the world and how it works.
Categories: Business & Economics

Mastering Illiquidity

Mastering Illiquidity

Available at mpJ/financefortunecnn.com/2011l11/14lbest-privateequity-firml [accessed 8 February 2012]. Quintyn, M. (undated) Principles versus ... Rebonato, R. (2007) Plight of the Fortune Tellers. Princeton University Press, Princeton, ...

Author: Thomas Meyer

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781119952817

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 304

View: 115

Arms investors with powerful new tools for measuring and managing the risks associated with the various illiquid asset classes With risk-free interest rates and risk premiums at record lows, many investors are turning to illiquid assets, such as real estate, private equity, infrastructure and timber, in search of superior returns and greater portfolio diversity. But as many analysts, investors and wealth managers are discovering, such investments bring with them a unique set of risks that cannot be measured by standard asset allocation models. Written by a dream team of globally renowned experts in the field, this book provides a clear, accessible overview of illiquid fund investments, focusing on what the main risks of these asset classes are and how to measure those risks in today's regulatory environment. Provides solutions for institutional investors in need of guidance in today's regulatory environment Offers detailed descriptions of risk measurement in illiquid asset classes, illustrated with real life case studies Helps you to develop reliable risk management tools while complying with the regulations designed to contain the individual and systemic risks arising from illiquid investments Features real-life case studies that capture an array of risk management scenarios you are likely to encounter
Categories: Business & Economics

Fool s Gold

Fool s Gold

... Wiley 1998; Rebonato, Riccardo, The Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Princeton University Press 2007, Chernow, Ron, The House of Morgan, Grove Press, 2001; Lowenstein, Roger, When Genius Failed, HarperCollins, 2001; Soros, George, ...

Author: Gillian Tett

Publisher: Hachette UK

ISBN: 9780748112210

Category: Social Science

Page: 352

View: 449

'A truly gripping narrative . . . The fact that Tett is able to reproduce such raw private communications is a tribute to her journalistic abilities' Dominic Lawson, Sunday Times 'Her blow-by-blow story is an impressive piece of detective work. She pulls back the curtain on a closed, unaccountable world of finance' Will Hutton, Guardian In the mid 1990s, at a vast hotel complex on a private Florida beach, dozens of bankers from JP Morgan gathered for what was to become a legendary off-site meeting. It was a wild weekend. But among the drinking, nightclubbing and fist-fights lay a more serious purpose - to assess the possibility of building a business around the new-fangled concepts of credit derivatives. The group at the heart of this revolution was an intense team, made up of individuals with a supreme sense of loyalty to each other and to the bank - for years, nothing could break them apart. But when, finally, the team dispersed, the innovations spread far beyond their original intentions, producing perversions in the mortgage market that ultimately culminated in disaster. Part real-life thriller, part investigation and exposé, this searing narrative takes us deep inside the shadowy world of complex finance - a perfect storm for the credit crunch
Categories: Social Science

Achieve 100 Reading Practice Questions

Achieve 100 Reading Practice Questions

In desperation, Nyambi told his plight to a fortune-teller. 'Spider is the only person who can help you,' the fortune-teller whispered knowingly. And so it was, for Spider came along and spun a very long thread from Earth to Heaven.

Author: Laura Collinson

Publisher: Hachette UK

ISBN: 9781471881794

Category: Study Aids

Page: 64

View: 931

Achieve 100 Reading Practice Questions cover a range of topics that children need to master the Key Stage 2 National Tests. Achieve revision and practice books are the most popular revision materials available to primary schools. These essential workbooks have been created to give Year 6 children the best possible preparation for the new National Tests.
Categories: Study Aids

Achieve Reading SATs Question Workbook The Expected Standard Year 6

Achieve Reading SATs Question Workbook The Expected Standard Year 6

In desperation, Nyambi told his plight to a fortune-teller. 'Spider is the only person who can help you,' the fortune-teller whispered knowingly. And so it was, for Spider came along and spun a very long thread from Earth to Heaven.

Author: Laura Collinson

Publisher: Hachette UK

ISBN: 9781510442535

Category: Study Aids

Page: 64

View: 148

Achieve. Fun and focused SATs revision. Achieve the Expected Standard in Reading, with the only fully updated revision series. Written in the style of the most recent Year 6 National Tests, this indispensable workbook will help children gain familiarity with the style of questions which will appear in the 2020 tests and covers everything that could be tested while ensuring children have some fun while they learn. Our unique approach has been helping children and schools perform above national average for over 15 years. This full colour write-in workbook: - Focuses practice on the areas of the curriculum needed to reach the expected standard - Builds exam confidence with questions and terminology that mirror the SATs - Provides clear explanations, top tips and digestible content -making it perfect for use in school or at home - Draws on expert analysis to ensure our content is just right Perfect for use alongside Achieve Reading SATs Revision The Expected Standard Year 6 and Achieve Reading SATs Practice Papers Year 6
Categories: Study Aids

Financial Risk Management

Financial Risk Management

Plight of the Fortune Tellers. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Reiner, Eric. 1992. “Quanto Mechanics.” Risk 3:59–63. Richardson, Matthew, and Lawrence White. 2009. “The Ratings Agencies.” In Restoring Financial Stability, ...

Author: Steven Allen

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781118175453

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 579

View: 535

A top risk management practitioner addresses the essential aspects of modern financial risk management In the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Website, market risk expert Steve Allen offers an insider's view of this discipline and covers the strategies, principles, and measurement techniques necessary to manage and measure financial risk. Fully revised to reflect today's dynamic environment and the lessons to be learned from the 2008 global financial crisis, this reliable resource provides a comprehensive overview of the entire field of risk management. Allen explores real-world issues such as proper mark-to-market valuation of trading positions and determination of needed reserves against valuation uncertainty, the structuring of limits to control risk taking, and a review of mathematical models and how they can contribute to risk control. Along the way, he shares valuable lessons that will help to develop an intuitive feel for market risk measurement and reporting. Presents key insights on how risks can be isolated, quantified, and managed from a top risk management practitioner Offers up-to-date examples of managing market and credit risk Provides an overview and comparison of the various derivative instruments and their use in risk hedging Companion Website contains supplementary materials that allow you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book Focusing on the management of those risks that can be successfully quantified, the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Websiteis the definitive source for managing market and credit risk.
Categories: Business & Economics

Banking on Basel

Banking on Basel

Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Reinicke, Wolfgang H. 1995. Banking, Politics and Global Finance: American Commercial Banks and Regulatory Change, ...

Author:

Publisher: Peterson Institute

ISBN: 0881325449

Category:

Page: 310

View: 270

Categories:

Machine Learning

Machine Learning

Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton University Press. Rissanen, J. (1978). Modeling by shortest data description. Automatica, 15(5), 465–471. Rodriguez, J. D., Perez, A., ...

Author: Steven W. Knox

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781119439073

Category: Computers

Page: 352

View: 707

AN INTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING THAT INCLUDES THE FUNDAMENTAL TECHNIQUES, METHODS, AND APPLICATIONS Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction offers a comprehensive introduction to the core concepts, approaches, and applications of machine learning. The author—an expert in the field—presents fundamental ideas, terminology, and techniques for solving applied problems in classification, regression, clustering, density estimation, and dimension reduction. The design principles behind the techniques are emphasized, including the bias-variance trade-off and its influence on the design of ensemble methods. Understanding these principles leads to more flexible and successful applications. Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction also includes methods for optimization, risk estimation, and model selection— essential elements of most applied projects. This important resource: Illustrates many classification methods with a single, running example, highlighting similarities and differences between methods Presents R source code which shows how to apply and interpret many of the techniques covered Includes many thoughtful exercises as an integral part of the text, with an appendix of selected solutions Contains useful information for effectively communicating with clients A volume in the popular Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction offers the practical information needed for an understanding of the methods and application of machine learning. STEVEN W. KNOX holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois and an M.S. in Statistics from Carnegie Mellon University. He has over twenty years’ experience in using Machine Learning, Statistics, and Mathematics to solve real-world problems. He currently serves as Technical Director of Mathematics Research and Senior Advocate for Data Science at the National Security Agency.
Categories: Computers

Portfolio Society

Portfolio Society

... The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2007); Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, ...

Author: Ivan Ascher

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 9781935408741

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 192

View: 410

A bold extension of Marx's Capital for the twenty-first century: at once a critique of modern finance and of the societies under its spell.
Categories: Business & Economics

Becoming Fluent

Becoming Fluent

Hillsdale , NJ : Erlbaum . Preminger , Alex , and T. V. F. Brogan , eds . 1993. The New Princeton Encyclopedia of Poetry and Poetics . New York : MJF Books . Rebonato , Riccardo . 2010. Plight of the Fortune Tellers ...

Author: Richard Roberts

Publisher:

ISBN: 9780262529808

Category: Cognitive neuroscience

Page: 248

View: 298

How adult learners can draw upon skills and knowledge honed over a lifetime to master a foreign language. Adults who want to learn a foreign language are often discouraged because they believe they cannot acquire a language as easily as children. Once they begin to learn a language, adults may be further discouraged when they find the methods used to teach children don't seem to work for them. What is an adult language learner to do? In this book, Richard Roberts and Roger Kreuz draw on insights from psychology and cognitive science to show that adults can master a foreign language if they bring to bear the skills and knowledge they have honed over a lifetime. Adults shouldn't try to learn as children do; they should learn like adults. Roberts and Kreuz report evidence that adults can learn new languages even more easily than children. Children appear to have only two advantages over adults in learning a language: they acquire a native accent more easily, and they do not suffer from self-defeating anxiety about learning a language. Adults, on the other hand, have the greater advantages--gained from experience--of an understanding of their own mental processes and knowing how to use language to do things. Adults have an especially advantageous grasp of pragmatics, the social use of language, and Roberts and Kreuz show how to leverage this metalinguistic ability in learning a new language. Learning a language takes effort. But if adult learners apply the tools acquired over a lifetime, it can be enjoyable and rewarding.
Categories: Cognitive neuroscience

Interest Rate Models Asset Allocation and Quantitative Techniques for Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Interest Rate Models  Asset Allocation and Quantitative Techniques for Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Rebonato, R. (2007) Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Princeton University Press. Reveiz, A. (2008) 'The Case for Active Management for the Perspective of Complexity Theory', Borradores de Economia. Vol. 495, Banco de la República.

Author: A. Berkelaar

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9780230251298

Category: Political Science

Page: 366

View: 760

This edited volume contains essential readings for financial analysts and market practitioners working at Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds. It presents the reader with state-of-the-art methods that are directly implementable, and industry 'best-practices' as followed by leading institutions in their field.
Categories: Political Science

Gambling with Other People s Money

Gambling with Other People s Money

... 27–28 Our Lot (Katz), 94n24 owner-occupied home loans, 56t Parker, Charles, 15 Paulson, Hank, 3,80, 88n15 Peltzman, Sam, 89n21 piggyback loan, 55–57, 61,94n22 Plight of the Fortune Tellers, The (Rebonato), 66–67 poker, analogy with, ...

Author: Russ Roberts

Publisher: Hoover Press

ISBN: 9780817921866

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 112

View: 296

What caused the Financial Crisis of 2008? While government mandates and private sector mistakes did contribute to the crisis and can be blamed at least in part for what happened, this book takes a different approach. Russ Roberts argues that the true underlying cause of the mess was the past bailouts of large financial institutions that allowed these institutions to gamble carelessly because they were effectively using other people's money. The author warns that despite the passage of Dodd-Frank, it is widely believed that we have done nothing to eliminate 'Too Big to Fail.' That perception allows the largest financial institutions to continue to gamble with taxpayer money.
Categories: Business & Economics

ECONned How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism

ECONned  How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism

Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. Rossman, Stephen A. The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. Vol. 2. London: Macmillan, 1987.

Author: Yves Smith

Publisher: St. Martin's Press

ISBN: 0230105734

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 368

View: 917

Why are we in such a financial mess today? There are lots of proximate causes: over-leverage, global imbalances, bad financial technology that lead to widespread underestimation of risk. But these are all symptoms. Until we isolate and tackle fundamental causes, we will fail to extirpate the disease. ECONned is the first book to examine the unquestioned role of economists as policy-makers, and how they helped create an unmitigated economic disaster. Here, Yves Smith looks at how economists in key policy positions put doctrine before hard evidence, ignoring the deteriorating conditions and rising dangers that eventually led them, and us, off the cliff and into financial meltdown. Intelligently written for the layman, Smith takes us on a terrifying investigation of the financial realm over the last twenty-five years of misrepresentations, naive interpretations of economic conditions, rationalizations of bad outcomes, and rejection of clear signs of growing instability. In eConned, author Yves Smith reveals: --why the measures taken by the Obama Administration are mere palliatives and are unlikely to pave the way for a solid recovery --how economists have come to play a profoundly anti-democratic role in policy --how financial models and concepts that were discredited more than thirty years ago are still widely used by banks, regulators, and investors --how management and employees of major financial firms looted them, enriching themselves and leaving the mess to taxpayers --how financial regulation enabled predatory behavior by Wall Street towards investors --how economics has no theory of financial systems, yet economists fearlessly prescribe how to manage them
Categories: Business & Economics

The Law on Corporate Governance in Banks

The Law on Corporate Governance in Banks

Rebonato, R,Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently (NJ: Princeton University Press 2007). Rosenberg, JV and T Schuermann, 'A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, ...

Author: Iris H-Y Chiu

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN: 9781782548867

Category: Law

Page: 384

View: 174

Corporate governance in financial institutions has come under the spotlight since the banking crisis in the UK in 2008-9. In many respects, the banking business raises unique problems for corporate governance that are not found in other corporate secto
Categories: Law

Alchemists of Loss

Alchemists of Loss

Rebonato, R. (2007) Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Princeton University Press. Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2009) This Time is Different, Princeton University Press. Roll, R. (1977) “A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory's Tests ...

Author: Kevin Dowd

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 047068996X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 432

View: 709

An engaging look at how modern finance almost destroyed our global economy Over the last thirty years, capital markets have been restructured through the tenets of modern finance. This has been enormously profitable for the financial services sector. However, these innovations, coupled with unsound risk and regulatory practices have proved disastrous for the global economy. In a clear and accessible style, ex-investment banker and financial journalist Martin Hutchinson, and highly respected academic, Kevin Dowd show how modern finance combined with easy money threatened to bring down the world financial system. At the heart of the book is modern finance as a U.S. invention, the theories and practices associated with them, and the changes they made in business models and risk management on Wall Street and other major financial centers. Breaks down the events involved in the 2007-08 financial collapse Reveals how botched policy response made a bad situation worse Focuses on lessons that the practice of finance must learn from recent events The Alchemists of Loss will help you to understand how our financial system crashed and show you what it will take to make sure this won't happen again as we move forward.
Categories: Business & Economics

Financial System of the Economy Principles of Money and Banking

Financial System of the Economy  Principles of Money and Banking

For a look at some of the challenges in managing financial risk, see Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently, Princeton University Press, 2008. An article that underscores many ...

Author: Maureen Burton

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317456865

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 710

View: 669

Attempts to assess whether the United States is in economic decline. Appropriate to general readers as well as economics students and scholars, this book examines the fears of Americans about their economic future.
Categories: Business & Economics

Socrates in the Boardroom

Socrates in the Boardroom

Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. Rosovsky, H. (1991). The University: An Owner's Manual. Norton: New York. Seng, L. B., and P. Willett (1995).

Author: Amanda H. Goodall

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9781400831586

Category: Education

Page: 200

View: 574

Why top scholars make the best university leaders Socrates in the Boardroom argues that world-class scholars, not administrators, make the best leaders of research universities. Amanda Goodall cuts through the rhetoric and misinformation swirling around this contentious issue—such as the assertion that academics simply don't have the managerial expertise needed to head the world's leading schools—using hard evidence and careful, dispassionate analysis. She shows precisely why experts need leaders who are experts like themselves. Goodall draws from the latest data on the world's premier research universities along with in-depth interviews with top university leaders both past and present, including University of Pennsylvania President Amy Gutmann; Derek Bok and Lawrence Summers, former presidents of Harvard University; John Hood, former vice chancellor of the University of Oxford; Cornell University President David Skorton; and many others. Goodall explains why the most effective leaders are those who have deep expertise in what their organizations actually do. Her findings carry broad implications for the management of higher education, and she demonstrates that the same fundamental principle holds true for other important business sectors as well. Experts, not managers, make the best leaders. Read Socrates in the Boardroom and learn why.
Categories: Education