Introduction True intelligence is about the future and what is likely to happen in
the time ahead (Clark 2007: 172). The security situation in Western societies has
changed significantly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is no longer a
Author: Isabelle Duyvesteyn
Category: Political Science
This volume discusses the challenges the future holds for different aspects of the intelligence process and for organisations working in the field. The main focus of Western intelligence services is no longer on the intentions and capabilities of the Soviet Union and its allies. Instead, at present, there is a plethora of threats and problems that deserve attention. Some of these problems are short-term and potentially acute, such as terrorism. Others, such as the exhaustion of natural resources, are longer-term and by nature often more difficult to foresee in their implications. This book analyses the different activities that make up the intelligence process, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a focus on changes brought about by external developments in the international arena, such as technology and security threats. Drawing together a range of key thinkers in the field, The Future of Intelligence examines possible scenarios for future developments, including estimations about their plausibility, and the possible consequences for the functioning of intelligence and security services. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general.
Author: Stephan De SpiegeleirePublish On: 2017-05-17
or imparted, news” was first recorded in the mid-15th century, from which time
also stems its other frequent meaning – also in diplomatic and military circles – of
“secret information from spies” (1580s).24 Today, intelligence means different ...
Author: Stephan De Spiegeleire
Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. Many analysts foresee truly disruptive changes in education, employment, health, knowledge generation, mobility, etc. But what will AI mean for defense and security? In a new study HCSS offers a unique perspective on this question. Most studies to date quickly jump from AI to autonomous (mostly weapon) systems. They anticipate future armed forces that mostly resemble today’s armed forces, engaging in fairly similar types of activities with a still primarily industrial-kinetic capability bundle that would increasingly be AI-augmented. The authors of this study argue that AI may have a far more transformational impact on defense and security whereby new incarnations of ‘armed force’ start doing different things in novel ways. The report sketches a much broader option space within which defense and security organizations (DSOs) may wish to invest in successive generations of AI technologies. It suggests that some of the most promising investment opportunities to start generating the sustainable security effects that our polities, societies and economies expect may lie in in the realms of prevention and resilience. Also in those areas any large-scale application of AI will have to result from a preliminary open-minded (on all sides) public debate on its legal, ethical and privacy implications. The authors submit, however, that such a debate would be more fruitful than the current heated discussions about ‘killer drones’ or robots. Finally, the study suggests that the advent of artificial super-intelligence (i.e. AI that is superior across the board to human intelligence), which many experts now put firmly within the longer-term planning horizons of our DSOs, presents us with unprecedented risks but also opportunities that we have to start to explore. The report contains an overview of the role that ‘intelligence’ - the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world - has played in defense and security throughout human history; a primer on AI (what it is, where it comes from and where it stands today - in both civilian and military contexts); a discussion of the broad option space for DSOs it opens up; 12 illustrative use cases across that option space; and a set of recommendations for - especially - small- and medium sized defense and security organizations.
law, 72; and the FISA Amendments Act, 34–35; and PRISM collection criteria,
103–104; and programmatic collection of data, 37; and the Protect America Act,
32; and public awareness of intelligence gathering, 55; and reform efforts, 137,
Author: Laura K. Donohue
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Since the Revolutionary War, America's military and political leaders have recognized that U.S. national security depends upon the collection of intelligence. Absent information about foreign threats, the thinking went, the country and its citizens stood in great peril. To address this, the Courts and Congress have historically given the President broad leeway to obtain foreign intelligence. But in order to find information about an individual in the United States, the executive branch had to demonstrate that the person was an agent of a foreign power. Today, that barrier no longer exists. The intelligence community now collects massive amounts of data and then looks for potential threats to the United States. As renowned national security law scholar Laura K. Donohue explains in The Future of Foreign Intelligence, global communications systems and digital technologies have changed our lives in countless ways. But they have also contributed to a worrying transformation. Together with statutory alterations instituted in the wake of 9/11, and secret legal interpretations that have only recently become public, new and emerging technologies have radically expanded the amount and type of information that the government collects about U.S. citizens. Traditionally, for national security, the Courts have allowed weaker Fourth Amendment standards for search and seizure than those that mark criminal law. Information that is being collected for foreign intelligence purposes, though, is now being used for criminal prosecution. The expansion in the government's acquisition of private information, and the convergence between national security and criminal law threaten individual liberty. Donohue traces the evolution of U.S. foreign intelligence law and pairs it with the progress of Fourth Amendment jurisprudence. She argues that the bulk collection programs instituted by the National Security Agency amount to a general warrant, the prevention of which was the reason the Founders introduced the Fourth Amendment. The expansion of foreign intelligence surveillanceleant momentum by advances in technology, the Global War on Terror, and the emphasis on securing the homelandnow threatens to consume protections essential to privacy, which is a necessary component of a healthy democracy. Donohue offers a road map for reining in the national security state's expansive reach, arguing for a judicial re-evaluation of third party doctrine and statutory reform that will force the executive branch to take privacy seriously, even as Congress provides for the collection of intelligence central to U.S. national security. Alarming and penetrating, this is essential reading for anyone interested in the future of foreign intelligence and privacy in the United States.
However, the fact of the matter is that the intelligence of future healthcare must
come both from artificial and natural forms. Historically in healthcare, the west
has had good fortune in developing science and technologies for healthcare,
such as ...
Author: R.G. Bushko
Publisher: IOS Press
The technology on our body, in our body and all around us enhances our health and well-being from conception to death. This environment is emerging now with intelligent caring machines, cyborgs, wireless embedded continuous computing, healthwear, sensors, healthons, nanomedicine, adaptive process control, mathematical modeling and common sense systems. The human body and the world in which it functions is a continuously changing complex adaptive system. We are able to collect more and more data about it but the real challenge is to infer local dynamics from that data. Intelligent Caring Biomechatronic Creatures and Healthmaticians (mathematicians serving human health) have a better chance of inferring the dynamics that needs to be understood than human physicians. Humans can only process comfortably three dimensions while computers can see infinite number of dimensions. We will need to trust the distributed network of healthons, Intelligent Caring Creatures, and NURSES (New Unified Resource System Engineers) to create Health Extelligence. We need new vocabulary to push forward in a new way. For instance; healthons are tools combining prevention with diagnosis and treatment, based on continuous monitoring and analyzing of our vital signs and biochemistry. The 'Healthon Era' is just beginning. We are closer and closer to the world with healthons on your body, in your body and all around you; where not a doctor but your primary care healthmatician warns you about an approaching headache; and where NURSE programs your intelligent caring creatures so they can talk to your cells and stop disease in its tracks.
The final future looks deadly dark. However, the fate of the universe and intelligence depends crucially on the nature of the still mysterious dark energy
which drives the accelerated expansion. Depending on its – perhaps time-
Author: Vladimir Burdyuzha
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
This book covers the proceedings of "The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization" symposium, held in Frankfurt, Germany in May 2005.
Yet in the end, human instincts, favoring stability, proved insufficient for the
enduring mastery of life. Their dominance yielded to the destabilizing power of intelligence (the force of change). Instability marked the second stage that
provided the ...
Author: Ernst Breisach
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
What does postmodernism mean for the future of history? Can one still write history in postmodernity? To answer questions such as these, Ernst Breisach provides the first comprehensive overview of postmodernism and its complex relationship to history and historiography. Placing postmodern theories in their intellectual and historical contexts, he shows how they are part of broad developments in Western culture. Breisach sees postmodernism as neither just a fad nor a universal remedy. In clear and concise language, he presents and critically evaluates the major views on history held by influential postmodernists, such as Derrida, Foucault, Lyotard, and the new narrativists. Along the way, he introduces to the reader major debates among historians over postmodern theories of evidence, objectivity, meaning and order, truth, and the usefulness of history. He also discusses new types of history that have emerged as a consequence of postmodernism, including cultural history, microhistory, and new historicism. For anyone concerned with the postmodern challenge to history, both advocates and critics alike, On the Future of History will be a welcome guide.
WHEN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) WAS BORN IN THE 1950s, excelling at
IQ tests or chess seemed to be a good indication of intelligence. After all, that's
what schools measured. Since then, a slew of other definitions have been added
Author: Dennis E. Shasha
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Reports from the cutting edge, where physics and biology are changing the fundamental assumptions of computing. Computers built from DNA, bacteria, or foam. Robots that fix themselves on Mars. Bridges that report when they are aging. This is the bizarre and fascinating world of Natural Computing. Computer scientist and Scientific American’s “Puzzling Adventures” columnist Dennis Shasha here teams up with journalist Cathy Lazere to explore the outer reaches of computing. Drawing on interviews with fifteen leading scientists, the authors present an unexpected vision: the future of computing is a synthesis with nature. That vision will change not only computer science but also fields as disparate as finance, engineering, and medicine. Space engineers are at work designing machines that adapt to extreme weather and radiation. “Wetware” processing built on DNA or bacterial cells races closer to reality. One scientist’s “extended analog computer” measures answers instead of calculating them using ones and zeros. In lively, readable prose, Shasha and Lazere take readers on a tour of the future of smart machines.
CARL SAGAN AND JOSEPH SHKLOVSKY : INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE
UNIVERSE VLADIMIR KURT Astrospace Center ... of living organisms on Earth
from the simplest viruses to Homo Sapiens , the evolution of intelligence and
Author: V. Burdyuzha
Publisher: World Scientific
The first of its kind, the Symposium on the Future of the Universe and the Future of our Civilization examined the current status and future evolution of the Universe, the Galaxy, the stars and the Sun. Among the major subjects of discussion were: (1) How was our Universe born? (2) How do the Sun and the stars evolve? (3) What is the destiny of the solar system and the Universe? (4) What are the origins and the future of the biosphere of the Earth? (5) What are the prospects of survival of human civilization? Special attention was devoted to analysis of humanitarian and philosophical problems of evolution of humankind on the planet Earth and in the Universe. Among them were methodological, economic, sociological and medical aspects of the progress of civilization. Scientists from different countries put forward some practical proposals, including those describing the possible ways out of the systemic crisis of our civilization.
Author: Barbara Czarniawska-JoergesPublish On: 2003
Narrating the future of intelligent machines The role of science fiction in
technological anticipation Brian P. Bloomfield Centre for the Study of Technology
and Organisation , Lancaster University Management School , UK This chapter is
Author: Barbara Czarniawska-Joerges
Publisher: John Benjamins Publishing
This book is a collection of texts that explore the analogy between organizing and narrating, between action and text. The raw material of everyday organizational life consists of disconnected fragments, physical and verbal actions that do not make sense when reported with simple chronology. Narrating is organizing this raw and fragmented material with the help of such devices as plot and characters. Simultaneously, organizing makes narration possible, because it orders people, things and events in time and place. The collection, written by organization researchers from many different countries, explores this analogy in both directions, reporting studies that show how narratives are made in situ, and applying narrative analysis (structuralist and poststructuralist) to stories already in existence. Barbara Czarniawska is Skandia Professor of Management Studies at GRI, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University, Sweden. Pasquale Gagliardi is Professor of Sociology of Organization at the Catholic University of Milan, and Managing Director of ISTUD- Istituto Studi Direzionali, Milan-Stresa, Italy.
That intelligence itself , accumulating strength and a variety of powers by natural
selection , became the means of exercising further selection in the things which
surrounded it , and which , from motives of taste and selfpreservation , most ...
What can we learn from the views of the experts in the field about the future of
research into the development of intelligence ? If nothing else you should by now
appreciate the range and richness of research in the field . I had hoped for a ...
Author: Mike Anderson
Publisher: Psychology Press
This text provides a contemporary review of methods and theories of the development of intellectual abilities from infancy to adulthood by the major researchers in the field.
The future of research on cognition and intelligence depends on the willingness
of researchers to agree on a set of ground rules and to stretch their comfort zones
in terms of their research methods and assumptions. Regardless of whether this ...
The fin de siècle of the 1990s was a period of uncertain transition for intelligence
communities. They found themselves caught between a familiar, Cold War past
and an uncertain future. It was a peculiarity of the debate over intelligence in the
Author: Heike Bungert
This work investigates the connection between intelligence history, domestic policy, military history and foreign relations in a time of increasing bureaucratization of the modern state. The issues of globalization of foreign relations and the development of modern communication are also discussed.
In particular, he focuses on the nation's intelligence requirements and derives
some lessons from the Gulf war. He points to the importance of a strong intelligence capability in preserving our national security. In the Gulf war, we had
Author: Gregory F. TrevertonPublish On: 2003-03-03
Kosovo in 1999 was a better foretaste of these future wars than Desert Storm was
a decade earlier. ... WHAT MISSION FOR INTELLIGENCE: Supporting these info-
warriors is intelligence's biggest change since the end of the Cold War, and it ...
Author: Gregory F. Treverton
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Business & Economics
Gregory Treverton, former US National Intelligence council head, demonstrates how government intelligence must change.
Lippmann's intelligence bureaus would operate in the following manner. First, the
professional staff of an intelligence bureau would have authority to collect data, to
examine any document or record, and could compel government officials to ...
Author: Clifford P. Harbour
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
'Honorable Mention' 2016 PROSE Award - Education Theory Today, community colleges enroll 40% of all undergraduates in the United States. In the years ahead, these institutions are expected to serve an even larger share of this student population. However, faced with increasing government pressure to significantly improve student completion rates, many community colleges will be forced to reconsider their traditional commitment to expand educational opportunity. Community colleges, therefore, are at a crossroads. Should they focus on improving student completion rates and divert resources from student recruitment programs? Should they improve completion rates by closing developmental studies programs and limiting enrollment to college-ready students? Or, can community colleges simultaneously expand educational opportunity and improve student completion? In John Dewey and the Future of Community College Education, Cliff Harbour argues that before these questions can be answered, community colleges must articulate the values and priorities that will guide them in the future. Harbour proposes that leaders across the institution come together and adopt a new democracy-based normative vision grounded in the writings of John Dewey, which would call upon colleges to do much more than improve completion rates and expand educational opportunity. It would look beyond the national economic measures that dominate higher education policy debates today and would prioritize individual student growth and the development of democratic communities. Harbour argues that this, in turn, would help community colleges contribute to the vital work of reconstructing American democracy. John Dewey and the Future of Community College Education is essential reading for all community college advocates interested in taking a more active role in developing the community college of the future.
One early and persistent source of apprehension was that the French
government's foreign policy interests, particularly concerning the future status of
Germany, differed substantially from those of the United States. Although for the
Author: James Igoe Walsh
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Category: Political Science
The cross-border sharing of intelligence is fundamental to the establishment and preservation of security and stability. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was based in part on flawed intelligence, and current efforts to defeat al Qaeda would not be possible without an exchange of information among Britain, Pakistan, Indonesia, and the United States. While critical to national security and political campaigns, intelligence sharing can also be a minefield of manipulation and maneuvering, especially when secrecy makes independent verification of sources impossible. In The International Politics of Intelligence Sharing, James Igoe Walsh advances novel strategies for securing more reliable intelligence. His approach puts states that seek information in control of other states' intelligence efforts. According to this hierarchical framework, states regularly draw agreements in which one power directly monitors and acts on another power's information-gathering activities-a more streamlined approach that prevents the dissemination of false "secrets." In developing this strategy, Walsh draws on recent theories of international cooperation and evaluates both historical and contemporary case studies of intelligence sharing. Readers with an interest in intelligence matters cannot ignore this urgent, timely, and evidence-based book.
... of eastern and central Europe, the pace of adapting to democratic values was
slow, as was thinking about the future of intelligence services in these countries.
In the West, however, debates about the future of intelligence were being driven,
Author: Bassey Ekpe
Publisher: Cambria Press
Taking as its central argument the question of whether an intelligence system is both desirable and feasible within the UN structure, this study explores the complex and sometimes, irreconcilable issues of strategic intelligence in a sharing context. This study further identifies and develops both conceptual and empirical framework for a viable intelligence capability in multi-agency institutions; exploring and suggesting, for the first time, necessary and acceptable conditions for collective intelligence in an environment characterised by conflicting objectives among international actors. It takes as its main premise the view that the United Nations and the world of intelligence are two separate and contradicting entities that conflict in both principles and operating doctrines. From this point of view, the author explores the many theoretical imperatives which set the two institutions apart and stand in the way of understanding the concepts. He also goes further to examine the contexts in which the contradictions could be harmonised. This book is one of a handful of studies; it is highly original in that it focuses on the relationship between intelligence and the United Nations. While previous efforts to examine the subject have approached it from a strictly practical point of view, this work is clearly focused on the linkages between theory and practice. The methodology is thoughtful and broad in scope, and the work is theoretically well informed and sophisticated in its analysis of the subject matter. The discussion of aspects of the theory of international relations--specifically those relevant to the role of international governance and the examination of the working of the UN--and several case studies of the UN in action are further characteristics of the rigor and clarity in which the author approaches the study in an intelligent and illuminating manner. While the book's many contributions can be found at various levels of originality, its thorough assessment of the linkage between theory and policy stands out, perhaps, as the most important and primary contribution to the areas of collective intelligence and international relations. Other important contributions include the case study analyses and specification of criteria for evaluating collective security intelligence mechanisms. In essence, a lack of scholarly efforts to ground the notion of collective intelligence within a rigorous intellectual framework is a significant vacuum in the study of intelligence which the present study has filled. Scholars working within the international relations discipline and more specifically issues of global governance and security will find this study invaluable. The book should also appeal to many categories of readers working in information and policy environment, as well as governmental and non-governmental organisations.
Attention was already turning to the future shape of British intelligence . In
September 1944 three influential GCHQ officers prepared a report for its Director
, Sir Edward Travis , entitled " The General Problem of Intelligence and Security
Author: Richard James Aldrich
Publisher: Manchester University Press
In postwar Britain, the secret services were more anxious to remain in the shadows than those of any other Western country. This volume suggests that the secret services were central to British policy making after the war.